Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not going to lose power unless there is foreign intervention amounting to a full-scale war, according to a leading Middle-East politician, Belfast Telegraph said.
Iraqi Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, said with a united army in control of Damascus and the major Syrian cities, Assad “will survive for the foreseeable future”. Zebari one of the few leaders to be in touch with all parties in the Syrian civil war, including the government and various factions of the opposition, along with their foreign backers.
In an interview he expressed pessimism about peace negotiations in Geneva proposed by the US and Russia, but said he believes that the best way forward may be a ceasefire policed by the UN prior to any agreement on a transitional government. He said: “I think it would be possible to do that with strong engagement by the UN to follow through and maybe some international peacekeepers.”
He was scornful of recent speculation about the possibility of a military coup in Damascus displacing Assad. He said “the idea of the army moving is a recent invention”, adding that it reminded him of abortive attempts by the CIA to organise the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in the 1990s, but that “this kind of regime is coup-proof”.
Zebari said he believes that the stalemate on the ground would not be broken even if the government or the rebels captured a few towns.
The Gulf monarchies are supplying advanced weapons to the rebels and the US and the Europeans “are conducting some covert operations in Syria and helping the Syrian opposition”. But he is convinced this will not really change the balance of forces on the ground which would only happen in the event of full-scale foreign intervention amounting to all-out war against the regime. He is equally convinced that there is no political will to do this and Assad, Iran and Russia are fully aware of this.
