Experts of American analytical center Stratfor suppose that the Nagorno Karabakh problem will be hardly solved in the near future by diplomatic ways. “Azerbaijan has increased its income from energy resources and wants to increase the official budget up to $1 billion against $700 million last year. And if the Azeri army was losing to the Armenian armed forces, the arms race can promote intensification of the situation around Nagorno Karabakh,” says the report of the center. American analyst also think that like in the case of Georgia, the establishment of Kosovo can serve as a cause for strengthening the opposition in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.
“Most likely the UN will grant independence to Kosovo, and it will give a cause to Russia to increase the Peacekeeping mission in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and Georgia will give an adequate response. Taking into account the tension between Moscow and Tbilisi the opposition can increase into open confrontation,” underline American experts. According to their forecast, in 2007 tension in the South Caucasus will increase, RFE RL reports.
