Moscow State University Higher School of Economics hosted a “Prospects for the EU after the Lisbon treaty and future relations between Russia and the EU” lecture by Yuri Borko, head of the Center for Research on European Integration of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, President of the Association of European Studies in Moscow.
“The Treaty of Lisbon which came into force on 1 December 2009 represents only a kind of institutional reform, a more effective tool decision-making, a political and psychological stimulus for the revival of optimism on the further development of the EU, but it is not a solution to a large number of problems faced by the EU,” Dr. Borko said. “First of all, there is no clear understanding of the ultimate goal of European integration. The EU is a multinational and multi-confessional formation; nevertheless integration of the Muslim population is not always successful. As result the June elections, majority of seats in the European Parliament got occupied by politicians with radical nationalistic views. In addition, the problem of ethnic separatism persists inside the EU (Catalonia, for example). Thus, there are several scenarios for possible development of the EU. First, it’s further development of the Union with the focus on deeper economic integration and careful enlargement policy based on accumulated culture of interstate communication. Second, it’s fragmentation of the EU, formation of different groups of countries within the Union, as, for example, countries more interested in energy cooperation with Russia and those not interested in it. Third, it’s disintegration of the EU given the aspiration for national identity, which passed into the background after the Second World War, but is re-emerging today.”
“Relations between Russia and the EU represent a delicate balance between cooperation and competition. In this respect the rivalry in the CIS will be most acute. The Eastern Partnership initiative aimed at strengthening of cooperation between EU and the six former soviet republics – Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia was adopted after the crack in Russia-EU relations, resulting from the war in Georgia in August 2008. But its real value remains to be small, considering the fact that the amount of funds allocated to implementation of the Eastern Partnership totals 600 million euro. Furthermore, the creation of the economic union in the six countries included in the program is complicated because of the existence of unresolved conflicts between them. Thus, Azerbaijan refuses to agree to the formation of an economic union unless the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is settled. However, the process of the redistribution of trade flows from the CIS to the EU in comparison with trade flows coming from the CIS countries to Russia is taking place. The further development of relations between Russia, EU and the CIS countries will depend on Russia’s ability to rebuild the principles of its relations with the CIS countries,” he said.
