According to the majority of Washington, D.C. insiders, the Armenian Genocide Resolution (H.Res.252) will pass the House Foreign Relations Committee in early March. Similar resolutions have already passed several times in the past, and the issue is being handled like a “Sword of Damocles” against Turkey, Hurriyet Daily News observer Ilhan Tanir writes.
“Turkey sees the resolution as poison for the normalization process. Besides, it has the potential to poison Turkish-American relationship as well. I think all parties would accept that the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia is not going the way one would like to see it going. In my last column, I openly criticized the Turkish administration for the way it is handling the protocols process so far, as it seems to me that Turkey has missed some of the tactical steps badly and at present it is tumbling,” the author says.
“Still, what happens if the resolution passes in a key U.S. congressional committee early next month and consequently passes on the floor of the House of Representatives? First of all, so far none of the people I have talked to, many of whom are extremely involved with the process, predict that the resolution will pass on the House floor, even if the majority of the same people think that the resolution will pass at the committee level. However, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, even successful passage at the committee level will “torpedo” the ratification of the protocols in the Turkish Parliament,” he says.
“Turkey’s position against the recognition of genocide at the presidential level would be much starker than the congressional level. There is very little convincing evidence to argue that the genocide resolution will be stopped in early March. Turkish Ambassador Namik Tan will be presenting his credentials to President Obama on Feb. 25 and will resume his post right after, in a very toilsome period,” he concludes.
