Armenia’s imported natural gas price could rise by 69%, from $177.50 to $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, if its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is suspended, according to a report prepared by EAEU member states.
The assessment appears in a report titled “On the Possible Consequences of Suspending the Application of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union to the Republic of Armenia.”
The calculation assumes that the physical volume of gas supplies would remain unchanged, Interfax reports.
The report’s authors also examined historical market prices for natural gas. According to publicly available information, the unsubsidized market value of Russian natural gas supplied to Armenia in 2013 was approximately $270 per 1,000 cubic meters.
For comparison, the document also cites figures from the European energy market. In particular, the average market price of natural gas at Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas trading hub in 2025 was approximately $422 per 1,000 cubic meters.
The report specifically emphasizes that the proposed $300 price for Armenia is a preliminary, indicative estimate and may not correspond to the final contractual price.
“The actual contractual price of supplied gas, taking into account conditions in the global gas market, could be higher. Under these circumstances, unlike the previously examined categories of goods, Armenia’s gas import costs would increase by $268.5 million, or 69%, from $389.0 million to $657.5 million.
“At the same time, this increase would lead to higher costs for producers and households and would negatively affect inflation and gross domestic product in the medium and long term,” the report states.
The document was presented to the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council by representatives of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
The report summarizes the steps Armenia has taken toward European Union membership and examines the potential compatibility of the EAEU and EU legal frameworks.
It also separately analyzes Armenia’s obligations under its EAEU membership and the potential new obligations arising from the process of joining the European Union.
In addition, the document outlines legal mechanisms intended to mitigate risks arising from Armenia’s decision to pursue EU membership.
The report is expected to be submitted to the leaders of EAEU member states for further discussion and examination.
Earlier reports indicated that the next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council is scheduled for December 2026.
The Russian government’s press service also recalled that the report was prepared on the basis of a joint statement adopted on May 29, 2026, by the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The document was developed to implement the arrangements outlined in that statement.
At the May 29 meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana, the presidents of four EAEU member states — Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan — adopted a statement concerning Armenia’s situation. Armenia was urged to hold a referendum as soon as possible on choosing between the EAEU and the European Union.
Various Russian officials have stated that if Armenia continues moving toward the European Union, it could lose the opportunity to purchase natural gas from Russia on preferential terms.
In addition, Russia has imposed restrictions on imports of Armenian products. In particular, it has banned imports of Jermuk mineral water, flowers and certain alcoholic beverages from Armenia. Restrictions have also been imposed on several agricultural products, including tomatoes, cucumbers and strawberries. Since June 2, Russia has restricted imports of cherries, apricots, peaches, plums, grapes and other stone fruits from Armenia, as well as their transit to other EAEU countries. Since June 3, Russia has also restricted imports of eggplants, potatoes and dried fruits originating in and exported from Armenia.
