Of course, it does not follow from Sarcozy’s statement that official Paris insists on the refusal to start negotiations with Ankara on the conditions of Turkey’s EU membership. Sarcozy only states that he considers negotiations with Ankara unreasonable and having no prospects. But if the start of negotiations for Turkey is an end in itself, then no problem. Negotiations may start but never finish. EU
Commission representative to Ankara, Hans Kretschmer has already stated that if negotiations start they will hardly finish by the end of 2014. Before that, Europe may change beyond recognition. It is quite possible that by that time, the issue of Armenia’s EU membership will be already put on the agenda.
Nicolas Sarcozy has always been against Turkey’s EU membership, but it is the first time that he speaks out so definitely. Sarcozy’s current status allows to suppose that his position is the official position of the government. Even if it is not so, let us not forget in any case that he is the most probable successor of Jacques Chirak. In case of success in the 2008 presidential elections his personal point of view will become official. Sarcozy’s statement contains an important accent. He underlined that he considered Turkey’s EU membership unacceptable, since Turkey “is the largest country of Central Asia and not of Europe”. So, he is against Turkey’s membership in the family of European nations not because Turkey has not yet fulfilled all the set requirements, but because of the geographical factor. It follows that Sarcozy supposes that Turkey cannot even aspire to gain a place in Europe even if all the requirements are fulfilled. This circumstance cannot but worry us, because the French minister’s point of view which becomes more and more popular contradicts to our interests. The problem is not in the fact that Armenia is also geographically located in Asia and that with the same logic Armenia can also be deprived of the right for a place in Europe. The thing is that there is a serious danger that Turkey may become absolutely unpredictable and unmanageably aggressive in case there is no stimulus to follow European values.
Hopes that Ankara will agree to be satisfied with the status of a “privileged partner” are not so big. Rejeb Erdogan has recently stated that he is not going to agree to that. Nevertheless European leaders, including Nicolas Sarcozy continue to state that “privileged partnership” is the maximum of what can be offered to Turkey. In the same spirit was also the statement of the head of Christian Democratic Union – Christian Social Union of German Bundestag. The leader of the parliamentary majority has clearly called to refuse to start negotiations with Ankara that were planned for October. It should be noted that the head of CDU-CSU is not just the leader of one of the political parties, but is a person that represents a political force which according to forecasts will win in the upcoming elections. This means that like in the case with Nicolas Sarcozy, we deal with “favorites” that may soon be at the controls. The future leaders of the two most influential countries of “Old Europe” are categorically against Turkey’s EU membership. In case of victory, those people will rule until 2010-2015. During that period of time, Turks will have no chances at all. Maybe this was what the EU Ankara representative meant saying that the negotiations on Turkey’s EU membership would last at the least until 2014.
It is likely that the negotiations with Ankara will start in October as it was planned during the last year’s EU summit. This was confirmed by the president of EU Commission Jose Manuel Barroso. But in the situation formed, the negotiations will hardly achieve any success.
