By closing the military prison at Guantanamo Bay and with the intention to establish certain relations with Iran, Barack Obama made it clear that George Bush's policy is going to be radically changed. The changes, beyond any doubt, will be directed to America's well-being and to recovering the US image in the world. Nevertheless, it is still too early to speak of concrete steps by Iran and the USA against each other. However, President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered congratulations to Barack Obama on his election win. In the words of US Permanent Representative to the UN Susan Rice, "The Obama Administration will engage in direct diplomacy with Iran. Washington is going to conduct diplomacy of pressure and dialogue towards Tehran." However, Iran has doubts that US President Barack Obama's Middle-East policy will be any different from that of George Bush. According to Parliament Speaker of Iran Ali Larijani, "The United States' silence and support for Israel have created many doubts about the policy change theory."
It is worth mentioning that Armenia-Iran relations have livened up lately. Not only an oil pipeline but also a railroad between Iran and Armenia are on project. The latter is of great significance to Armenia as it would give a chance to not only have an entry to the Persian Gulf countries, but to China as well. And in near future the China factor may become rather essential. It can be proved by the fact that Chinese Prime-Minister Wen Jiabao is going to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. Among the joint plans are a railroad between Iran and Armenia, an oil pipeline from Iran's Tabriz refinery to a special terminal to be built in Armenia's Ararat province, and a hydropower station on the Araks River, which borders the two countries. Bringing Armenian-Iranian trade relations into sync with World Trade Organization requirements is also under consideration.
The total price of Iran-Armenia railroad is going to be shared equally by the countries. But in view of the financial crisis it might be difficult for Armenia to pay about 1 billion USD, therefore attracting foreign investors may have a key role. China was invited to take part in construction of the Iran-Armenia railroad during a December 2008 visit of an Armenian parliamentary delegation to China. Beijing is considering the proposal, Iran Information Agency "Fars" reports.
At the same time Iran opposes the construction of any underwater pipeline in the Caspian Sea that will carry oil from Kazakhstan to Azerbaijan with the further aim to export it to Europe. "The pipeline will be constructed on the seabed and could pose threats to the ecological system of the Caspian Sea," Hossein Noqrekar-Shirazi, Iran's Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs, said Saturday. He added that Iran is against any plans that can disturb the ecological balance of the Caspian Sea, noting that Russia also opposes the construction of the pipeline.
In spite of the statements of Official Baku on peace and friendship, the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are far not sunny, and the chief reason for it is Azerbaijan's territorial claims to the Province of Eastern Atrpatakan, referred to in Baku as 'Southern Azerbaijan'. Azerbaijan's orientation towards the Turkic world also plays an important role in this issue. Actually, a struggle is going on between Baku and Tehran for energy carriers markets and here Iran has more chances at least because she is an OPEC member unlike Azerbaijan. It's true that Baku is invited to the summits of this Organization but it can sooner be interpreted as a political gesture than a real invitation to cooperation.
However strange it may seem, Armenia has more chances of partnership with regional leader, be it Iran or Turkey. To all appearances, Turkey is already trying to get rid of the «Azerbaijani dependence»; the anti-Turkish statements in the Azeri press (though not very harsh yet) can serve as a proof of it. At the same time according to Iranian analysts, plans for joint infrastructure projects between Armenia and Iran may prove a key first test of President Barack Obama's policy intentions toward the region amidst the global economic crisis.
Iran is richer in natural resources than Turkey and, thereby, she has more chances of regional leadership. However, it should be noted that the dominating role of religion in the social-political life might impede Iran. On the other hand, it may not – everything depends on the Presidential Elections due in June. Whether Ahmadinejad will be re-elected and what chances other candidates have is rather difficult to predict in such a country, with such elections.
