However, it is noteworthy that not all the states in the world are ready to accept the ayatollah regime and to cooperate with it. The opposition in the person of Rafsanjani and Khatami still attempts to call in question the results of presidential elections in Iran. Let us not discuss how founded or unfounded their claims are: elections in any eastern and even western country are always a fair chance for the opposition to once more remind about themselves or, if they have such an order, to arrange a "minor revolution". It is what the opposition in Iran still attempts to do, calling people to meetings and to referendum. However, what worked in a number of countries, will definitely not work in Iran. And the matter is not only the mentality of the Iranians; simply, if a revolution occurs, it will end up in blood and destabilization of the whole region. For this very reason the West does not reply Iran with a definite "No". But if we also add to this the incomprehensible games around the Leader of the Nuclear Program of Iran, we can assume that Teheran may make some, so to speak, concessions. More than participation in regional projects Iran needs outlet to the outer world, so that she would no more be ascribed to "outcast" countries. Specifically, for this very reason are made the statements on the readiness to supply gas for Nabucco, which will turn from a "dream gas pipe" into reality only if the Iranian gas is pumped up into it. As for Azerbaijan, the situation seems quite clear with her – Europe will get only the crumbs remained from Gazprom. Moreover, the latest tough statement of the EU Three about the arrested journalists, which badly harms Baku's reputation in the eyes of the world community, may make Azerbaijan an "improper" partner, no matter how keenly Baku denies it.
However, as far as the Karabakh issue is concerned, here too Iran will try and, in all probability, will secure the consideration of her interests in the negotiation process. And it is still unknown whether the OSCE Minsk Group will refuse to consider this factor. Reasons are several and the most important is the absence of personal interests (at least, in words) in using a counterweight against the open pro-Azerbaijani position of Turkey. Naturally, Iran has more chances in this so-to-say competition.
However, things do not end at that. The sharp reproof addressed to Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by the representatives of the elite, who undermine the foundations of the state, clearly shows to the world what can become of Iran if the opposition continues the protest demonstrations. There will be arrests, gunfire, and, at best, exile from the country. In other words, we'll have the same situation when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power. One more thing should be remembered: Iran is not the country to intimidate or blackmail like, for example, Turkey. Teheran may come out to be a far more fitting ally for the West in view of its predictability, what can't be said about Turkey and, what is more, about Azerbaijan, the leadership of which is not in its best shape now. It became especially evident after the Moscow meeting between Sargsyan and Aliyev, when Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and the President contradicted each other in their statements. By the way, let us note in between that these disagreements have started still since the June meeting of the Presidents, and what it will lead to is still difficult to predict.
In view of the geopolitical situation, Armenia had better continue cooperation with Iran, especially since it no longer appears so "bad" in the eyes of the West. Today Azerbaijan, lost in her priorities, little by little is losing her pseudo-friends on the region and, no matter how hard the Baku propaganda and agitation department tries to persuade that their "country is unique and exceptional in the region", it can change nothing. Thus, in all likelihood, Iran is determined to consolidate its place in the region and only "random" course of events can prevent her from doing it.
