But in this case we are more interested in Azerbaijan's position, which can be briefly described as stupor. According to some fragmentary information, Baku politicians are now in confusion: Ankara has actually chosen Armenia and the world community as partners, having accurately calculated that under such circumstances it is better to strive for regional leadership rather than to be held hostage to the short-sighted policy of Ilham Aliyev. And though the choice in favor of Armenia is made under the pressure of circumstances, the good point is that despite everything it is made. Baku has finally realized that Karabakh is never going to belong to Azerbaijan in spite of the continuous statements of Ilham Aliyev. In principle, Aliyev can now do nothing but "calm down" his people after decades of lies, claiming that very soon the Armenians will return all the 7 regions and NKR into the bargain Everything ended on August 31, 2009. In this regard we may assume that Armenian diplomacy won another round, but it is still too early to declare the final victory. Diplomatic relations will be established, the border will be opened, but Turkey will continue to deny the Armenian Genocide and will attempt to intervene in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, although presently there can be no question on conflict regulation. There is no conflict as such; it was solved 18 years ago by the people of NKR and was solved without assistance.
Surely it was not by accident that Russia and the USA recalled their OSCE Minsk Group mediators in August and appointed no new ones. Does this mean that the Minsk Group format has already outlived its capacity and now we need something new that would make Aliyev sign a peace treaty with Stepanakert? Exclusively with Stepanakert and not with Armenia as some people still hope in Baku.
But let us revert to the Armenian-Turkish relations, or rather to the prospects of their normalization. Fear of the Armenian society over the issue of opening the border is quite reasonable because once the border is opened a flow of Turkish citizens is expected to pour into Armenia and become the fifth Kurdish-Turkish colony, which could threaten the national security of Armenia. Boundary must be opened, no doubt in it, but there must be some restrictions. For example, the Turkish-Georgian boundary is open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., with time restrictions imposed by the Turkish side. Something similar must be done in our case; moreover, the initiative must proceed from Yerevan. The population of Eastern Turkey shows rather a positive attitude towards opening the border; however, here too Ankara shows her prudence so typical of her. Such is the ethnic policy of Turkey: the borderland is mostly inhabited with Kurds, while, all the villages located straight at the Armenian boundary are populated exclusively with Turks. So the Kurds, who are looking forward to normal relations with the Armenians, will inevitably have to confront the Turkish population, which is not really eager to normalize relations. Nevertheless, Turkey views the Armenians and the Kurds as potential allies in the struggle against the central power. Not by chance on the streets of Van do the gendarmes walk around with sub-machine-guns even in daytime. And not only in Van. The entire Eastern Turkey, i.e. Western Armenia is like a cauldron, ready to explode any moment, and the major problem of Ankara is to prevent such a scenario. Otherwise Turkey will simply collapse. And it is also one of the reasons why Turkey decided to take such a step as the establishment of relations with Armenia, no matter what it may bring about in the future.
