Naturally, in the front line of fire is the RA Foreign Ministry; it has to be the first to answer various “awkward” questions. Less than three weeks is left before the Presidential Elections of Azerbaijan and, quite naturally, various statements on Armenia’s readiness to enter into a dialogue with Turkey and even “return” Nagorno Karabakh will be increasing. No matter how hard Official Yerevan tries to deny statements of such kind, until October 15 they will be rising in geometric series. Strangely enough, the pre-election situation in Azerbaijan is somewhat like that of the US. Both in Baku and in Washington collapsing the home policy, the President seeks rescue in the foreign policy of the country. And though the scale is incomparable, the principles are the same in the two countries. In fact, these principles are applied in all the countries, especially in the post-Soviet territory. Ilham Aliyev is well-aware of the outcome of elections and of the reaction of international community in case he does not publicly confirm some of his positions on transportation of hydrocarbon and on Nagorno Karabakh. The issue of oil- and gas-pipelines is quite a serious matter, but Nagorno Karabakh requires maximum accuracy: Azerbaijan will not take the track of Georgia; otherwise the West will simply reconsider its energy policy towards Azerbaijan. Aliyev’s expectations from the USA in the person of the US President and Prime-Minister have already proved vain. Turkey is the next on this line. The improper role of Ankara in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and in isolation of Armenia on Baku’s advice had its dirty effect, and Abdullah Gul’s visit to Yerevan was not evidence of good life, just like the New-York meetings.
As we have previously mentioned, Turkey does not want to strain relations with Armenia since the latter is in good terms with Russia. And no matter how strongly Armenia opposes, Turkey, though alongside with Iran, is the key country in the region. Perfectly realizing the situation, the USA actively encourages Armenia to enter into a dialogue with the Turkish Government. According to Professor of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University (USA) Dennis J. D. Sandole, “Turkey and Armenia should look into the 1915 events and start building normal relations. In this case, Russia’s influence on Armenia will weaken.”
The anti-Russian rhetoric of the USA may spread over Armenia too, resulting in the refusal of basic directions of the 10-year-old foreign policy of Armenia, which, for years, has been attaching great importance to international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, as well as to the right of the Nagorno Karabakh people to self-determination. And though the UN platform announces that this can never happen, everything is possible in politics. Very often spontaneous, all-economic interests (though obscure) prevail over the national ones. And what is most interesting – during the latest Armenian-Turkish talks the problem of recognition by Armenia of Turkish borders has not been raised, at least publicly. Quite possibly this issue will simply be buried and we shall have to forget about the national security of the Armenian State for long.
The attempts to normalize relations with Armenia are treated rather skeptically in Turkey. According to Turkish diplomat Murat Bilhan, “Recent efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and neighboring Armenia are a step in the right direction, but the process has failed to produce any results other than a softening in the political rhetoric. Armenia should be aware that this is a give-and-take process, but it does not seem to be ready to give anything.” However retired Ambassador Murat Bilhan does not speak of Turkey’s unwillingness to meet Armenia halfway, whereas one-sided compromise is impossible. In all probability Armenian-Turkish talks will drag on like the process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. However, in essence, both problems are already solved: Nagorno Karabakh is not going to agree to any condition, even under the pressure of the world community. But the question is if Armenia will be able to resist the pressure, for possession of the Caucasus is at stake.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
